Spirit War
Lockheed Martin Skunk Works concept art of a sixth generation fighter. (Lockheed Martin)
FARNBOROUGH AIRSHOW 2024 – Amid the revolution in aviation, the head of the US Air Force said on Saturday he is “reasonably confident” America’s next-generation fighter jet will have a pilot, which leave the door open, however slightly, for departure. a complete system of people.
“I am sure there will be a sixth generation fighter. I’m very confident that it will work,” Kendall told Breaking Defense in an exclusive interview this week.
That the Air Force appears unsure whether the aircraft will need a pilot, and possibly a pittance to land them, suggests that the service may need to take a closer look at the basic needs of the fighter its Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD), as it continues. he originally planned to award the airline contract sometime this year. Broadly speaking about the possible changes, Kendall said “it would be reasonable” to conclude that the Air Force should step back and conduct a critical review of the NGAD’s design and capability requirements.
“We’re having discussions right now about what to do and how to move forward,” Kendall said, echoing recent comments by Air Combat Command chief Gen. Ken Wilsbach that the lower choice for NGAD may come in 2024. [Wilsbach] it is said that it is not the last word on the matter.”
Kendall recently raised the prospect of serious changes to the NGAD, suggesting in previous discussions that the Air Force was working to ensure the service had the right focus — and at the right price. Expanding on his thinking, Kendall said the key factor is the overall cost of the air vehicle and the engine, noting that electricity is “only a part of it” and “not itself the main driver.”
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The floating of the possibility of a defunct NGAD following his comments on the need to revive the jet may have set off alarm bells among the Air Force’s notorious “mafia”, who have Great pride in the aviation tradition of the service. But, analyst JJ Gertler of The Teal Group said, it’s a sign that Kendall is taking a serious approach to thinking through all of her options to avoid it. “drive[ing] group on one side or the other. ”
“We knew that [the Air Force was] reviewing the system design; we knew they measured at least twice before cutting the checks. Like any good pilot, they’re doing a final inventory check before they get in the air,” Gertler said.
And, he wrote in an email, it makes sense to consider at least an optional design because “Practically any modern air warfare system that is not designed for civilian use is still being developed by choice.”
For example, modern technology such as internet and fly-by-wire control means “no matter where the operator sits. In fact, the decision to create a populated platform drives planning and capability to pass the decision to make it uninhabitable. So in a very real sense, no population becomes the default unless there is a reason to put someone on the platform,” Gertler said.
Air Force officials have discussed on the phone for years that the NGAD will be expensive, and Kendall often uses the metric of “multiples” of the cost of the existing F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. as a price. But with pressing modern needs and ballooning costs for other key programs, officials are openly questioning whether their ambitions can be met.
“If you look at what we’re doing in our five-year plan – which is on the Hill right now – in our key accounts over the past years, it’s clear that we’ve done something that wouldn’t have been, you know, lasting,” he said. said. “We also have to fix that problem. Therefore, we have a lot of problems in being able to pay for the five-year plan that we had to solve. And we have to go check and verify, if you like, that we have the right idea [for NGAD].”
Another issue, according to Kendall, is the equipment that supports the warrior’s performance. “The infrastructure required to support the F-22 class aircraft, if you will, leads to certain weaknesses. For example, the length of the runway,” he said.
Gertler noted that based on previous comments by authorities such as Kendall, “A delay in the central part of the NGAD not only seems likely, but already underway. “
“It may not have been the norm in the past, but there’s a lot to be said for creativity involving reality rather than the world as it was when you start the program or how you wish it would be 40 years from now,” he added. “A procurement program that does not allow for adaptation to changing conditions will not provide an efficient system.”
Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall speaks to students and guests during the Senior Leader Training Course at Joint Base Andrews, Md., July 24, 2023. The course provides training for newly minted brigadier generals appointed and senior members of the management service. (US Air Force photo by Eric Dietrich)
‘Collection’ of Threats
Since the inception of the F-22 program, the Air Force’s concept of achieving air superiority has been based on the concept of a stealth missile that can slip past enemy air defenses and take out threats before they are detected – a concept of the function that the service calls. “the piercing wind.”
Kendall says that mindset hasn’t changed since the early 1990s, when he briefed then-defense secretary Dick Cheney on what were considered major threats to the most the F-22 can face: the Soviet air defense systems in Syria.
But the battlefields have changed in the decades since then, and Kendall said the Air Force is now looking at a list of Chinese threats that include increasingly advanced air defenses, advanced stealth technologies, and new sensors and built-in weapons to increase target range. to be seen and destroyed.
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When asked if new technology had emerged that could disrupt the NGAD concept, Kendall described the growing threats as “the accumulation of time.” But he also suggested that another operational concept could drive changes to the NGAD’s requirements.
“It is natural to think that, if you have a certain generation of something, you are going to buy the next generation of that thing, and it will have the same characteristics, the same concept of operation , but be better than the one you already have,” Kendall said.
“That philosophy is what led to where NGAD is headed. But we are no longer against Syria. We are no longer against the Soviet Union,” he said. “We’re up against China, in particular, as a walking challenge. And we have to make sure we’re doing the right thing.”
Richard Aboulafia, an aviation expert at AeroDynamic Advisory, noted that the Air Force’s frustration over NGAD operational requirements “points to the idea that true air dominance and air superiority may never exist” – an idea that is also emphasized by the problem of Russia and Ukraine to create. stable weather control throughout the war in Ukraine.
“It speaks to a world where there are more risks, there are more threats, and there are fewer opportunities to eliminate air defenses on the other side, where your use of equipment which looks very different,” he said. .
Ultimately, Aboulafia said he believes the Air Force needs a sixth-generation fighter, but the service faces “fundamental contradictions” in its design and budget requirements that could drive delays. Affordability concerns may naturally push the service to a smaller aircraft with limited range, but an advanced Chinese threat may require a larger, more capable, longer-range jet which can be expensive.
“I don’t know which one it is [right option] and it’s possible that they don’t know, but if there is a reorganization, they are two very opposing paths,” he said.
Kendall, for his part, said that the NGAD is not only about the capabilities of the platform itself, but how it is compatible with the lethal network that connects the future drone wings known as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) , space capabilities and new weapons products.
“It will need to work with CCAs. It will need to work in a building that includes space-based support and other off-board support and a building that uses our most advanced weapons,” he said. said so. “So we have an opportunity here to be careful and make sure we’re on the right track before we make a final commitment.”
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